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In the Fragile Families Challenge, the simple benchmark model with only a few predictors was only slightly worse than the most accurate submission, and it actually outperformed many of the submissions (SI Appendix, section S2. Ideally, these assessments would be carried out with government administrative data used in policy settings because the properties of these data likely differ from the properties of the Fragile Families data, but legal and privacy issues make it difficult for researchers to access many types of administrative data (29).

In addition to providing estimates of predictability in a single setting, the Fragile Families Challenge also provides the building blocks for future research about the predictability of life outcomes more generally. The predictions and open-sourced submissions from participants provide a data source for future study with the Fragile Families sample (SI Appendix, section S6). The Fragile Families Challenge also provides a template for one type of mass collaboration in the social sciences (30, 31).

There are currently many longitudinal studies happening around the world, all with different study populations, measurement characteristics, and pyramid of maslow goals. Each of these studies could serve as the basis for a mass collaboration similar to the Fragile Families Challenge. Progress made in these future mass collaborations might also reveal other pyramid of maslow research problems that we can solve better collectively than individually.

We thank the Fragile Families Challenge Board of Advisors for guidance and T. Hartshorne for research assistance. This study was supported by the Russell Sage Foundation, NSF Grant 1760052, pyramid of maslow Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Grant P2-CHD047879. McLanahan wrote the paper.

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Wolters, Wei Lee Woon, James Wu, Catherine Wu, Kengran Yang, Jingwen Yin, Bingyu Zhao, Chenyun Zhu, Jeanne Brooks-Gunn, Barbara E. Engelhardt, Moritz Hardt, Dean Knox, Karen Levy, Arvind Narayanan, Brandon M. Stewart, View ORCID ProfileDuncan J. AbstractHow predictable are life trajectories. ResultsOnce the Fragile Families Challenge was complete, we scored all 160 submissions using the holdout data.

DiscussionThe Fragile Families Challenge provides a pyramid of maslow estimate of the predictability of life outcomes in this setting. AcknowledgmentsWe thank the Fragile Families Challenge Board of Advisors for guidance and T.

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